Urgent coronavirus-pandemic — interim advisory update
How we live, work, play, pray, travel, socialize, manage, think, and govern are all changing. Many of these changes will persist for years or decades after this crisis passes. Many of these changes will be innovative and disruptive, inspiring and uplifting—others, neutral, discomforting or depressing.
Huge list of unknowns
There are many unknowns: flattening the coronavirus diffusion curve, contact tracing, pharmaceutical treatments, vaccines, antibody testing, healthcare system stresses, learning from the experience, and new emerging opportunities, improved business models and new ways to collaborate, to name a few.
Most economists and pundits have decided a global recession is all but guaranteed[i], and an economic depression is possible.
Economists are revising growth forecasts downward as the coronavirus crisis hits production, jobs, and consumption across the world. All G7 economies are expected to shrink sharply this year, according to Consensus Economics, a company that averages forecasts of more than 700 economists each month.[ii] Financial Times Coronavirus Business Update.
Recovery will come
Most estimates for a full, post-pandemic economic recovery fall between three months and three or more years. Until there is an effective vaccine, the pandemic could recur annually. Also, watch out for “unknown unknowns” lurking beneath the surface.
Our research on coronavirus, the disease (COVID-19), and the pandemic is very well focused, easy to consume, and actionable.
Connect the DOTS for Covid-19 workforce risk[iii]
Here is a tactical framework for non-healthcare organizations to create a workforce risk register for every employee, mitigate future legal liability and take steps to minimize negative impacts on employees, customers, suppliers, your business, and others.
Coronavirus Playbook: CEO Pandemic Planning[iv]
An early reader-favorite that continues to attract outsized interest, this article provides a well-developed checklist of key CEO actions to minimize the risk of this pandemic to your business.
Contrarian COVID-19 Advice for Manufacturers[v]
Post-pandemic, we won’t be returning to business as usual. A new normal state is emerging, with an altered workforce, a constrained economy, massive government debt, and weakened supply chains. Follow Dan’s five well-reasoned rules for surviving in the post-pandemic normal.
New coronavirus: Italy at war[vi]
This type of analysis is what convinced governments in the UK, US, and elsewhere to get significantly tougher in their fight against the pandemic. The article presaged most similar popular press accounts.
Serving the Faithful In A Post-Coronavirus Society[vii]
Make change a constant element in servicing the flock and exploit the assets and capabilities of others instead of taking the whole burden on yourself. Jeff explains the why and what of hub-and-spoke televangelist models.
A3E Research Take 5: The COVID-19 Pandemic & the Music Industry[viii]
Online piracy and streaming killed the CD, leaving most artists with live entertainment as their revenue engine. The pandemic is rewriting the rules for live entertainment, pushing artists to stream their live events. The article evaluates eleven audio and entertainment technology and business disruptors and classifies them into one of three categories: winners, neutral, and challenged. Bill closes the article with four strong, clear recommendations to follow.
Rethink Business Resilience Planning. Now.[ix]
Bruce dives into several critical questions on business resilience planning.
Surviving COVID-19: What Enterprise CIOs Must Do Now[x]
Bob highlights vital areas of vigilance for CxO’s that span both the technical and social domains.
Coronavirus lessons and recommended actions[xi]
This 20 February 2020 round-up article is the successor to our first omnibus post on Coronavirus, Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn (13 February 2020). It raised many questions for you to consider, notably:
- What about your communications infrastructure? Can it handle changes in utilization?
- Do you have redundant communication pathways for workers, suppliers, and customers?
- Remote Access/Remote Work Programs (IT VPN, mobile communications)
- Can remote and virtual meeting technologies fill some of the vacuum?
- Should you increase supply chain redundancy and resilience without dramatically impacting your bottom line?
- Should you deliberately multisource transportation options?
- How can you protect against a growth of bad actors in times of stress (e.g., increases in Ransomware attacks)
- How far should you go to expand the product sales, delivery, and support contingencies you can handle? What are the limiting conditions where it all breaks down?
- What are your limits on divorcing work from specific physical locations, and how can you work around problems that such an approach creates?
- What alternative sales channels (such as telesales and local partners) have you developed that can protect your employees from the risks of working in proximity to a disaster zone?
- How can you backfill for missing personnel? What about document and system permission schemes and fallback responsibilities?
- How far can your organization stretch – who backs up whom? How can you maximize flexibility?
- Do you have plans for simplifying internal workflows when needed?
- Do you have a plan in place to slip internal and external deadlines proactively?
- What can you do to boost worker immunity, reduce worker stress, and protect them from follow-on impacts?
- How will this affect financial operations (banking, payroll, payments)
- How will you integrate your newfound disaster-related plans into your traditional onboarding, training, and development activities?
And before the 13 February 2020 article Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn we initiated our analysis of the novel coronavirus with Richard Marshall’s article The end of big events could be nigh[xii], warning that, as we’ve learned, events are off. Period. Full stop. (Just yesterday, the IOC announced that the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Japan are moving to 2021.[xiii])
For any of these articles that pertain to you, reach out to the specific author or authors for further advice. Each author is a master of their own space, and can provide you with specific advice, created for your particular situation. If your needs span project areas, contact the managing partners (firstname.lastname@example.org, French.Caldwell@thansyn.com or Toby.Bell@thansyn.com.)
Note: This article is a ‘RoundUp’ of the latest views of the pandemic and its social, economic, business, and personal implications and recommended actions. It supersedes our previous Coronavirus RoundUp articles.
[i] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/global-recession.asp Global aggregate GDP drop.