Analysis

Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn

February 12, 2020By Tom Austin3 CommentsReading time: 1 minute 15 seconds

Note: here is a new action-oriented article that incorporates this material by reference.

The coronavirus has killed over 1,300 people thus far[1]. Loss of life and other human costs — think of the guests and crew quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Yokahama[2] — are far more important than commercial implications.

Headlines

Nonetheless, many headlines are focused on important commercial implications.

For example:

Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona called off over coronavirus fears[3]. This is a half-billion euro event[4]. The organizer’s event insurance will likely not help them unless restrictions are imposed on public gatherings in the country on health grounds, which is not the likely at this time.
F1’s Chinese GP called off because of coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk[5].
China’s race was to be run 19 April, Vietnam’s 5 April.
Chinese financial shock gathers steam as world holds its breath on coronavirus[6].
Coronavirus Shock Could Push Europe Into a Downturn[7]
WHO official says it’s too soon to predict the end of the coronavirus outbreak[8].
The Economist says “A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve. A downward trend in new cases in China suggests that the virus might have peaked[9].” They sketch an optimistic curve, with no new cases projected before the end of this month and a pessimistic one, with no new cases by mid-March, 2020.

Different economies are in a position to be more or less tolerant of disruption. Likewise different industries and enterprises.

Across ThAnSyn, The Analyst Syndicate, we’re collecting a range of positions that we will expose on this page beginning on the 20th of February. We aren’t experts on calling recessions or recoveries. But we’ve enough experience advising enterprises on how to become more resilient to be able to better weather the economic storms they’re going to encounter.

Action

Come back on or after the 20th of February to get a sense of the positions and advice our analysts develop and watch how they evolve.

Updates

Here’s an interim list of analyses by members of The Analyst Syndicate (updated daily). All are on the syndicate’s main web site: thansyn.com.

- The end of big events could be nigh

And here are some new overnight headlines to consider (as of 13 February):

Coronavirus Cases Seemed to Be Leveling Off. Not Anymore[10]
Fed Watching Risks of Broader Coronavirus Disruptions[11]
S. Travel Industry Set for Multibillion-Dollar Hit From Coronavirus[12]
Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States are Flawed, C.D.C. Says[13]

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

[2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/13/national/coronavirus-diamond-princess/#.XkVS-xPYp-U

[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-mobileworld/mobile-world-congress-in-barcelona-called-off-over-coronavirus-fears-idUSKBN2061FV

[4] https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/12/21127754/mwc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-trade-show-phone-mobile-world-congress-gsma-statement

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/12/f1-chinese-gp-set-to-be-called-off-due-to-coronavirus-with-vietnam-race-at-risk

[6] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/07/china-contract-europe-near-recession-world-holds-breath-coronavirus/

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/coronavirus-europe-economy-daimler.html

[8] https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-12-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[9] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/12/a-ray-of-hope-in-the-coronavirus-curve

[10] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-cases-china.html?referringSource=articleShare

[11] https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-monitoring-coronavirus-outbreak-and-risks-for-broader-disruptions-11581427827?

[12] https://www.wsj.com/articles/travel-industry-set-for-multibillion-dollar-hit-from-coronavirus-11581503401?

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html?referringSource=articleShare

Tom Austin

Tom Austin continues to be a potent industry presence, as he has been for over 40 years. At Gartner from 1994 through mid-2018, Tom was a Gartner Fellow, GVP, Head of Research and Gartner’s Lead Analyst for several firms including Google and Adobe. A major keynoter at events for Gartner, Tom has treated audiences on six continents to his key insights and recommendations. Author of over a thousand research notes and papers and quoted by many press sources including The New York Times, The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, Tom is in his element dealing with both the depths of a broad range of technologies (from the capabilities and limits of artificial intelligence through the nature of information processing and learning in living organisms) and the business of business and its related strategic elements such as dealing with and creating disruptive innovation. Tom has played a key role in early identification of major disruptive trends such as social software, client-server and cloud architectures and implementation and the impact of commoditization and consumerization of technology. After leaving Gartner, Tom created The Austin Group, LLC (a personal consultancy to executives and enterprises) and The Analyst Syndicate, LLC, a new business model for dozens of independent analysts to maximize their personal impact working with each other.

Disclosure

The views and opinions in this analysis are my own and do not represent positions or opinions of The Analyst Syndicate. Read more on the Disclosure Policy.

3 Comments

Surviving COVID-19: What Enterprise Must Do Now - The Analyst Syndicate
February 27, 2020
[…] Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn […]
Reply
Coronavirus lessons and recommended actions - The Analyst Syndicate
February 20, 2020
[…] is a follow on to Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn. The human cost continues to grow while evidence suggests the epidemic may be slowing, but […]
Reply
The end of big events could be nigh - The Analyst Syndicate
February 13, 2020
[…] This is part of a larger collection of #Thansyn research on the impact of the CoronaVirus epidemic. […]
Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

© Copyright The Analyst Syndicate. All rights reserved.