Analysis

Coronavirus

Will virus drive world recession? #Thansyn

February 12, 2020By Tom Austin6 CommentsReading time: 1 minute 15 seconds

Note: here is a new action-oriented article that incorporates this material by reference.

The coronavirus has killed over 1,300 people thus far[1]. Loss of life and other human costs — think of the guests and crew quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Yokahama[2] — are far more important than commercial implications.

Headlines

Nonetheless, many headlines are focused on important commercial implications.

For example:

Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona called off over coronavirus fears[3]. This is a half-billion euro event[4]. The organizer’s event insurance will likely not help them unless restrictions are imposed on public gatherings in the country on health grounds, which is not the likely at this time.
F1’s Chinese GP called off because of coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk[5].
China’s race was to be run 19 April, Vietnam’s 5 April.
Chinese financial shock gathers steam as world holds its breath on coronavirus [6].
Coronavirus Shock Could Push Europe Into a Downturn[7]
WHO official says it’s too soon to predict the end of the coronavirus outbreak[8].
The Economist says “A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve. A downward trend in new cases in China suggests that the virus might have peaked[9].” They sketch an optimistic curve, with no new cases projected before the end of this month and a pessimistic one, with no new cases by mid-March, 2020.

Different economies are in a position to be more or less tolerant of disruption. Likewise different industries and enterprises.

Across ThAnSyn, The Analyst Syndicate, we’re collecting a range of positions that we will expose on this page beginning on the 20th of February. We aren’t experts on calling recessions or recoveries. But we’ve enough experience advising enterprises on how to become more resilient to be able to better weather the economic storms they’re going to encounter.

Action

Come back on or after the 20th of February to get a sense of the positions and advice our analysts develop and watch how they evolve.

Updates

Here’s an interim list of analyses by members of The Analyst Syndicate (updated daily). All are on the syndicate’s main web site: thansyn.com.

- The end of big events could be nigh

And here are some new overnight headlines to consider (as of 13 February):

Coronavirus Cases Seemed to Be Leveling Off. Not Anymore[10]
Fed Watching Risks of Broader Coronavirus Disruptions[11]
S. Travel Industry Set for Multibillion-Dollar Hit From Coronavirus[12]
Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States are Flawed, C.D.C. Says[13]

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

[2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/13/national/coronavirus-diamond-princess/#.XkVS-xPYp-U

[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-mobileworld/mobile-world-congress-in-barcelona-called-off-over-coronavirus-fears-idUSKBN2061FV

[4] https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/12/21127754/mwc-2020-canceled-coronavirus-trade-show-phone-mobile-world-congress-gsma-statement

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/12/f1-chinese-gp-set-to-be-called-off-due-to-coronavirus-with-vietnam-race-at-risk

[6] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/07/china-contract-europe-near-recession-world-holds-breath-coronavirus/

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/coronavirus-europe-economy-daimler.html

[8] https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-12-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[9] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/12/a-ray-of-hope-in-the-coronavirus-curve

[10] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-cases-china.html?referringSource=articleShare

[11] https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-monitoring-coronavirus-outbreak-and-risks-for-broader-disruptions-11581427827?

[12] https://www.wsj.com/articles/travel-industry-set-for-multibillion-dollar-hit-from-coronavirus-11581503401?

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html?referringSource=articleShare

Tom Austin

Conventional wisdom is meant to be broken, and I passionately break things – even the newest things – to reassemble them in entirely novel ways. I create images, ideas, textures, and models no one’s seen before. In my youth, I was into scientific research on the most complex machines of all, brains, but, sensing far more opportunity in computers and information technology, I gravitated to the vendor side (Digital Equipment Corp — DEC) and developed a broad range of skills for 17 years. Then I moved to Gartner, Inc., where I was for a quarter of a century. At Gartner, I held several titles, including Chief Fellow and worldwide Head of Research. I created several new extremely successful and popular research products such as Maverick Research, Gartner Cool Vendors, and Gartner Predicts. In many ways, “Maverick Research” is one of my signature achievements. I also guided the creation of several new coverage areas, most famously, restarting and leading research on AI and growing coverage from 2012 to 2018. I received “Gartner Thought Leadership” awards for my last several years at the firm for industry-leading work on topics such as “Conversational AI Platforms (2016)” in which I defined the space. I advised CEOs or their direct reports at most of the industry’s leading firms, including helping them create new platform-centered, e-commerce, and cloud-savvy product and service strategies. I created numerous conference series and keynoted many, including several of Gartner’s Annual Symposia in the US, Europe, Australia, Japan, and Brazil. I was equally prolific in interactions with clients and prospects (over 18,000 one-on-one interactions) and writing (over 1,200 documents published under the Gartner brand.) After Gartner, I created – and have been running – the world’s best independent analyst collective, The Analyst Syndicate, where we help each other be more successful. My latest research kicks? I am finding ways to deescalate those spectacular excesses of industry hype that discourage, not motivate, bold new initiatives, and I’m exploring how Large Language Models can be used to inform the creation of research products. If I'm not in a creative or provocative mood, you will likely find me socializing with peers and clients and, if the weather’s not too cold, roaming New England in my 1962 Morgan +4 Roadster. My biographic information can be found on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-austin-analyst.

Disclosure

The views and opinions in this analysis are my own and do not represent positions or opinions of The Analyst Syndicate. Read more on the Disclosure Policy.

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